Week 14

Update for Cannabis Industry between February 16th and February 20th.

Given that several people asked for a follow-up to my previous weekly post, I decided to take a deeper look into the industry.

Why is the data different from previous post?

I have done a slight mistake by taking into account the gross revenue and not the net revenue, which skewed for some companies, but I still believe that taking the gross revenue is much more representative (that is for another topic).

The second thing that I have not taken into the account is the wholesale within the country, as I've only used the recreational sale. Now, I take into the account the Wholesale with medical cannabis.

Another mistake I have done previously is that for Tilray brands and some other quarters, I have failed to translate USD into CAD which falsifies the data.

Now with all of that sorted, here is the data with real numbers.

To start, I’d like to share some of the numbers behind how I calculated market share in last week’s post. I’ve made slight adjustments based on new information from certain companies, as well as the addition of a new key player, Auxly.

What I have done is I have collected public data from SEDAR regarding their revenue.
Some of the companies have not yet published their latest 2025 quarterly results, so I used the most recent four quarters available to ensure a fair comparison. In some cases, I have simply taken the yearly results and deducted the quarters I was not interested in to come up with the full 4 quarters.

Then, I have also taken into account the currency they were publishing the results in, for which I have taken the average 2025 USD to CAD rate which is (1.3977).

Is it fair doing so?

I believe that the currency adjustments could of been better, given the period of time, but for simplicity of things I've done that. As far as for the other information is fair to assume that taking a quarter from 2024 and adding to 2025 wouldn't skew things much if currently there is only 3 quarters available (unless there was a big merger like with MTL Cannabis).

What is the Total Net Revenue for the year then?

With everything organized, we arrive at the total net revenue for each company. This figure includes recreational cannabis, wholesale, and medical sales. Unfortunately, for most companies it is currently difficult to determine where medical cannabis sales are allocated (international or provincial), so I have decided to include them in the total revenue.

Is it fair?

I mean, in the best scenario I would love to only have Canadian sales, but given that some companies do not elaborate on Medical Sales (In most cases it is international indeed), I have decided for now to keep it. But I would love to know your comments about it if I should keep it or not.

Now for the Adjusted EBITDA.

As we know, EBITDA is a measure that helps us better understand the "profitability" of business operations. In other words, it is a metric used to evaluate a company’s operating performance by excluding interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Adjusted EBITDA starts with traditional EBITDA and excludes additional items that management considers non-recurring or non-operational. Because it is not standardized, companies have discretion in how they calculate it.

For this analysis, I have decided to exclude the following items: disposition of assets, asset impairments, restructuring costs, depreciation and amortization, goodwill, share-based compensation, interest, and changes in fair value.

Also, given that most of the companies (besides SNDL - thanks besties!) do not provide in-depth analysis for each sales branch (Like international, US, Canada), it makes it hard to have an accurate Adjusted EBITDA for a specific branch, like Canada.

So, how do you calculate adjusted EBITDA without detailed information on where expenses are allocated?

I took a straightforward approach and looked at how much of the sales come from Canada compared to the rest of the revenues, such as international sales.

With that, I was ready to calculate adjusted EBITDA, starting from operating income and working my way up. (If you think a different approach, such as starting from net income, would be better, I’d love to hear your reasoning in the comments.)

With that, I have come to these Adjusted EBITDA's for each company.